【Future Sex (2018)】

For a vivid idea of how extreme the Arctic Circle fires have Future Sex (2018)been this year, look at the stark graphic below.

Produced by the European Union's earth observation agency, Copernicus, the chart shows satellite observations of the size and intensity of fires in the Arctic Circle — the polar region atop Earth — during the last 18 years (that's the length of this wildfire satellite record).

The years 2019 (yellow bars) and 2020 (red bars) stand like dominant skyscrapers over the average of the previous 16 years (gray bars).

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"The two years together is quite alarming," Thomas Smith, an assistant professor in environmental geography at the London School of Economics, told Mashable in late June. "I don't use that word lightly."

Wildfire trends in the Arctic Circle. Credit: eu copernicus

In 2019, the World Meteorological Organization called the burning in the Arctic Circle "unprecedented." But the June 2020 fires have surpassed even the "scale and intensity" of 2019's fires, according to Mark Parrington, a senior scientist at the European Union's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service.

What does this all mean?

• The last two years of fires depict what could be a changing fire pattern in the Arctic Circle. "With confidence, we can say that this does appear to be an increasing trend of fire," Jessica McCarty, an Arctic fire researcher and assistant professor in the Department of Geography at Miami University, told Mashable in June. "There’s some shift occurring." But, importantly, the 18-year satellite record is not yet long enough to say with certainty that, even amid a relentlessly warming climate, the Arctic Circle has entered a new, extreme fire regime.

• The Arctic Circle is now releasing large amounts of the heat-trapping greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere as forests, tundra, and peatlands burn. The June fires in 2019 and 2020 emitted more carbon into the atmosphere than the previous 16 Junes combined, Smith, of the London School of Economics, noted online. (Atmospheric scientists, like Copernicus' Parrington, use satellite observations from NASA satellites to measure how much radiation the fires are releasing. Then, accounting for the type of vegetation burning, like carbon-rich peatlands, they can estimate the carbon emissions.)

• Profound, record-setting heat in Siberia in 2020 created the dry environmental conditions ripe for flames. For six straight months, temperatures in Siberia have been significantly above average, made possible by warmer weather patterns enhanced by climate change.

The Arctic Circle fires in 2020 aren't nearly over. Satellites, and scientists, will be watching.

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